Revenues from these exports fell by 8.8% y/y due to lower prices

Brazil exported 41.1 million tons of iron ore in July this year (+4.7% y/y), breaking the previous record of 39.5 million tons set in December 2015. This was reported by Reuters with reference to official data.

At the same time, revenues from these exports fell by 8.8% year-on-year in July – to $2.62 billion due to a decline in prices of approximately 13% compared to July 2024.

According to a statement by the Brazilian mining lobby group Ibram, in June and July, the sector saw a recovery in confidence thanks to the progress of major projects in China and the resumption of production. They added that this was one of the factors that could have influenced demand and contributed to the rise in world prices since the end of June.

After more than three months of calm, the global iron ore market confidently entered a growth trajectory in July. In the near term, it will depend on how ambitious China’s new government initiatives turn out to be. If the country confirms its course of stimulating infrastructure, ore will have every reason to remain above $100/t in the future.

As GMK Center reported earlier, Moody’s expects iron ore prices to remain at $80-100/t in the next 12-18 months. This forecast is due to weak demand from China and high supply on the global market.

A similar view was expressed by BMI Country Risk and Industry Research. They maintain their forecast for the average annual price for 2025 at $100/t, although they acknowledge the pressure from weak demand.