In the EU market, producers are trying to maintain profitability by increasing prices
Rebar prices turned negative in early September after mixed trends in August. Last month, offers fell by 4.5% in China and 1.1% in Turkey. At the same time, prices rose in Europe – by 0.8% in the North and 2.7% in Italy, and in the US – by 3.5%.
As of September 12 (compared to August 29), offers fell by 2.1% in China, 2.7% – in Italy, and 0.5% – in Turkey. Prices remain stable in Northern Europe and the US.
Turkey
In August and early September 2025, the Turkish rebar market remained under pressure from weak demand in both the domestic and export segments. At the end of August, prices fell by 1.1% compared to July, to $536.1/t FOB, and between August 29 and September 12, they lost another 0.5%, reaching $535/t FOB.
The key factors were limited capacity utilization and buyers’ reluctance to conclude deals at higher levels. Turkish mills maintained official quotations at $540-550/t FOB, but actual sales were mostly in the $535-540/t range. European demand remained weak after Turkey exceeded EU quotas in July, resulting in a 12% duty. This opened up additional opportunities for producers in Romania and Bulgaria.
Demand from the Middle East and Africa was limited due to logistical problems and financial risks, and part of the volume shifted to China. Domestic demand also remained weak due to high interest rates, lack of liquidity, and political tensions. Even the central bank’s key rate cut failed to stimulate the market, and some spot traders were forced to lower prices to $520/t ex-works.
Additional pressure came from low scrap prices and a general deterioration in sentiment on global markets. In these conditions, Turkish producers are increasingly reducing capacity utilization in an attempt to avoid further losses.
EU
The rebar market in the EU showed signs of strengthening in August 2025, but trends changed in early September. In Northern Europe, prices rose by 0.8% to €615/t ex-works, mainly due to the revision of so-called size extras in Germany and Austria. These surcharges, which were raised by a number of mills for the first time in ten years, became a way to compensate for weak base prices, which stabilized at around €350/t. As a result, effective (real) offers reached €630/t, and some deals reached €640-650/t. Gradually, other producers joined the initiative, which supported the overall level of quotations in the region.
In Italy, the situation developed more dynamically. After falling in July, prices recovered by 2.7% in August to €565/t ex-works, due to a shortage of certain diameters and seasonal production stoppages. Additional support for the market was provided by infrastructure projects financed by the EU recovery fund. At the same time, the price increase remained fragile due to weak demand in residential construction and buyer caution.
In early September, the market reversed direction: in Italy, prices fell by 2.7% to €550/t ex-works, with some contracts being concluded at even lower prices. This was due to the resumption of production after the holidays and market saturation with supply, while consumers took a wait-and-see approach. In Northern Europe, prices remained stable, but the uncertain outlook for CBA and new import restrictions create uncertainty about future dynamics.
Overall, in August and early September, the EU rebar market fluctuated between manufacturers’ attempts to maintain profitability through markups and the reality of weak demand, which generally limited growth potential.
USA
The US rebar market showed growth last month, with prices reaching $890/t ex-works, up 3.5% from July. The main driver was record low import volumes: in July, they fell to 60.8 thousand tons, more than half the June level. The shortage of supplies from abroad strengthened the position of local producers, who limited spot sales, supporting prices.
At the same time, market dynamics remained contradictory. Demand in commercial and residential construction was sluggish, while infrastructure projects provided minimal support for prices. Market sentiment was affected by uncertainty in the scrap segment: prices for some grades of raw materials declined, while others remained stable. This limited the potential for further growth.
In September, prices settled in a narrow range of $880-900/t. The market was awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on a possible rate cut, which could stimulate construction. However, the overall situation remained weak: reduced construction spending and a decline in the new orders index signaled a lack of sustained demand. Thus, the main factors during this period were low imports, controlled supplies from mills, and expectations of monetary stimulus.
China
In August 2025, the Chinese rebar market showed a steady decline. Prices fell by 4.5% to $441.7/t FOT, and between August 29 and September 12, they fell by another 2.1% to $432.3/t. The main factors were weak demand due to heat and heavy rains, which hampered construction activity, as well as the accumulation of stocks by traders and factories.
Contradictory signals from producers added to the uncertainty: some steel mills lowered their selling prices, while others tried to keep them unchanged. Production restrictions in northern regions due to the parade in Beijing only temporarily reduced supply pressure. At the same time, infrastructure projects partially supported demand, but the weakness of the real estate market offset this effect.
In early September, the market remained volatile. Production cuts at some plants and rumors of new incentives fueled speculation, but low margins and high inventories kept prices in check. As a result, the Chinese rebar market entered September with cautious sentiment and weak prospects for a quick recovery.