China’s continued reliance on coal-fired electricity plants is pushing the country “off track” from the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to energy analysts.
The world’s largest energy consumer, China will increase its coal consumption until 2026 and will only record declines after 2027 as renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy take a larger share of power generation, according to a report from researcher Rystad Energy.
China’s rapid additions of new coal-fired power plants and its lack of a coal phase-out plan are responsible for it falling behind the Paris Agreement pace, despite the country’s record buildout of renewable energy, according to a report released by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute .
While the global coal pipeline outside of China is shrinking, China’s coal plant permitting spree is a cause for concern,” the report said. “If it continues, the only way to avoid a major increase in emissions would be to drastically cut power plant utilisation.”
Steam billows out of cooling towers at a coal-fired power station in Nanjing, in east China’s Jiangsu province, on September 27, 2021.
Steam billows out of cooling towers at a coal-fired power station in Nanjing, in east China’s Jiangsu province, on September 27, 2021.
Coal, the most emissions-intensive fossil fuel, currently meets more than half of the energy needs in China, which is the world’s largest greenhouse-gas emitter and the world’s largest consumer, producer, and importer of coal. China’s coal consumption increased 3.3 per cent in the past five years to around 4.04 billion tonnes last year, according to data from Rystad Energy.
Total coal consumption will further rise to 4.2 billion tonnes in 2026 before sliding to 2.4 billion tonnes by 2040 and 1.4 billion tonnes by 2050, Rystad Energy’s report said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping said two years ago that the country would start “phasing down” coal use starting in 2026 as part of its effort to slash carbon emissions and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. However China has been adding coal capacity at a record pace: it approved an average of two plants per week and added 52 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired capacity in the first half of 2023, according to a report published last month.