The upcoming EU investigation could affect trade sooner than expected

The potential introduction of retroactive anti-dumping duties on imports of hot rolled coils (HRC) to the EU could affect trade earlier than expected, Argus Media reports.

According to the agency, the European Commission is likely to officially announce an anti-dumping investigation into HRC coils from Egypt, Japan, India and Vietnam this week.

The European Steel Association (EUROFER) insisted on the registration of imports from these four countries and the introduction of retroactive duties. The latter step is not often taken in EU steel trade cases. Nevertheless, the EC took this step in the case of imports of cold-rolled coils from Russia and China in 2015-2016.

Retroactive duties are usually introduced 90 days before the temporary measures come into force. However, this is only possible if imports are registered. The final decision on such duties will be made at the final stage of the investigation. If it is expected to start on August 8 this year, and provisional duties are imposed eight months later – as is usually the case in the case of proven dumping – retroactive final duties may be imposed on imports cleared after January 2025.

Hot-rolled coil trading in Europe has slowed in recent weeks due to a seasonal drop in demand. Service centers prefer to manage inventory rather than replenish it.

If an investigation is launched, VietNamNet writes, it could deal a double blow to Vietnam’s hot rolled steel sector, threatening to lose export market share and increase competition from imports within the country.

The inflow of imported HRC at low prices to the country in the first half of the year increased by 1.5 times compared to the same period in 2023, to 6 million tons. At the same time, from March to the end of the second quarter of 2024, prices for these products in the domestic market were continuously declining. Vietnam is also facing problems in export markets due to an oversupply of hot-rolled coils and tighter trade protection measures in importing countries.

At the same time, Indian market participants, according to Kallanish, are waiting for an official announcement from the bloc to comment on how this may affect the country. Another source believes that the EU investigation is unlikely to have a significant impact on Indian HRC exports, as exports to the region were limited during April-June. According to Eurometal, as of August 5, India’s imports of hot rolled coils to the EU amounted to 226.2 thousand tons, which has already exhausted 75% of the available quota for the third quarter.

The upcoming EU anti-dumping investigation against four steel exporters could affect more than half of the bloc’s hot-rolled coil imports.