Both crude steel production and apparent consumption in China are expected to decline in 2025, with output contracting at a faster pace than demand, according to Mysteel’s newly published forecast for the domestic steel market next year. The drop in steelmakers’ production will likely be driven by weakening steel exports, it notes.

Mysteel predicts that China’s total crude steel output will fall by 1.3%, or 13 million tonnes, to reach 990 million tonnes in 2025. This reduction comes amid intensifying anti-dumping measures and tariff hikes targeting Chinese steel products, which may force domestic steelmakers to rein in output.