Iron ore prices are under pressure in early December 2025. At the same time, spot January contracts on the Singapore Exchange experienced a greater decline – by 2.3% over the period from November 28 to December 5, to $103.3/t, while January futures on the Dalian Exchange fell by 0.9% – to $111.12/t.
The first week of December saw fluctuations in spot prices. At the beginning of the month, the market was supported by a weak dollar and expectations of a cut in the US discount rate, which stimulated an increase in indices. However, by the end of the week, prices had fallen, reflecting pressure from limited trading activity and reduced purchases by steel mills ahead of the holidays.
Data from Chinese ports show an increase in iron ore stocks and a decline in average daily shipments, signaling weaker demand. At the same time, rebar production in eastern China has regained profitability, supporting partial price stabilization, while central China is seeing a concentration of scheduled maintenance of blast furnaces and a reduction in steel production.
Short-term market optimism is driven by expectations of economic measures in China, particularly the Central Economic Conference to be held in mid-December. In addition, the start of ore shipments from the Simandou project in Guinea has the potential to impact supply next year, although the first shipments to China are not expected until early 2026.
Seasonal factors and structural changes in steel production remain the main factors putting pressure on the market. Despite short-term fluctuations and expectations of political stimulus, the market is fundamentally in a phase of moderate weakness due to declining steel production, accumulation of stocks in ports, and limited purchasing activity by steel mills.
It should be noted that Fitch recently revised its price assumptions for iron ore for 2025-2026 upward, reflecting continued healthy global demand and higher starting prices. The average price for iron ore with 62% iron content (CFR China) in 2025 will be $100/t, compared to the previous forecast of $95/t, and in 2026 – $90/t instead of the previously expected $85/t.